The Search for Invariance: Repeated Positive Testing Serves the Goals of Causal Learning

Positive testing is characteristic of exploratory behavior, yet it seems to be at odds with the aim of information seeking. After all, repeated demonstrations of one’s current hypothesis often produce the same evidence and fail to distinguish it from potential alternatives. Research on the development of scientific reasoning and adult rule learning have both documented and attempted to explain this behavior. The current chapter reviews this prior work and introduces a novel theoretical account—the Search for Invariance (SI) hypothesis—which suggests that producing multiple positive examples serves the goals of causal learning. This hypothesis draws on the interventionist framework of causal reasoning, which suggests that causal learners are concerned with the invariance of candidate hypotheses. In a probabilistic and interdependent causal world, our primary goal is to determine whether, and in what contexts, our causal hypotheses provide accurate foundations for inference and intervention—not to disconfirm their alternatives. By recognizing the central role of invariance in causal learning, the phenomenon of positive testing may be reinterpreted as a rational information-seeking strategy

Contrasting responses of mean and extreme snowfall to climate change

Snowfall is an important element of the climate system, and one that is expected to change in a warming climate. Both mean snowfall and the intensity distribution of snowfall are important, with heavy snowfall events having particularly large economic and human impacts. Simulations with climate models indicate that annual mean snowfall declines with warming in most regions but increases in regions with very low surface temperatures. The response of heavy snowfall events to a changing climate, however, is unclear. Here I show that in simulations with climate models under a scenario of high emissions of greenhouse gases, by the late twenty-first century there are smaller fractional changes in the intensities of daily snowfall extremes than in mean snowfall over many Northern Hemisphere land regions. For example, for monthly climatological temperatures just below freezing and surface elevations below 1,000 metres, the 99.99th percentile of daily snowfall decreases by 8% in the multimodel median, compared to a 65% reduction in mean snowfall. Both mean and extreme snowfall must decrease for a sufficiently large warming, but the climatological temperature above which snowfall extremes decrease with warming in the simulations is as high as −9 °C, compared to −14 °C for mean snowfall. These results are supported by a physically based theory that is consistent with the observed rain–snow transition. According to the theory, snowfall extremes occur near an optimal temperature that is insensitive to climate warming, and this results in smaller fractional changes for higher percentiles of daily snowfall. The simulated changes in snowfall that I find would influence surface snow and its hazards; these changes also suggest that it may be difficult to detect a regional climate-change signal in snowfall extremes.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-1148594)United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ROSES Grant 09-IDS09-0049

Gene Expression and Biological Pathways in Tissue of Men with Prostate Cancer in a Randomized Clinical Trial of Lycopene and Fish Oil Supplementation

Studies suggest that micronutrients may modify the risk or delay progression of prostate cancer; however, the molecular mechanisms involved are poorly understood. We examined the effects of lycopene and fish oil on prostate gene expression in a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized clinical trial.Eighty-four men with low risk prostate cancer were stratified based on self-reported dietary consumption of fish and tomatoes and then randomly assigned to a 3-month intervention of lycopene (n = 29) or fish oil (n = 27) supplementation or placebo (n = 28). Gene expression in morphologically normal prostate tissue was studied at baseline and at 3 months via cDNA microarray analysis. Differential gene expression and pathway analyses were performed to identify genes and pathways modulated by these micronutrients.Global gene expression analysis revealed no significant individual genes that were associated with high intake of fish or tomato at baseline or after 3 months of supplementation with lycopene or fish oil. However, exploratory pathway analyses of rank-ordered genes (based on p-values not corrected for multiple comparisons) revealed the modulation of androgen and estrogen metabolism in men who routinely consumed more fish (p = 0.029) and tomato (p = 0.008) compared to men who ate less. In addition, modulation of arachidonic acid metabolism (p = 0.01) was observed after 3 months of fish oil supplementation compared with the placebo group; and modulation of nuclear factor (erythroid derived-2) factor 2 or Nrf2-mediated oxidative stress response for either supplement versus placebo (fish oil: p = 0.01, lycopene: p = 0.001).We did not detect significant individual genes associated with dietary intake and supplementation of lycopene and fish oil. However, exploratory analyses revealed candidate in vivo pathways that may be modulated by these micronutrients.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00402285

Derivation and functional analysis of patient-specific induced pluripotent stem cells as an in vitro model of chronic granulomatous disease

Chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is an inherited disorder of phagocytes in which NADPH oxidase is defective in generating reactive oxygen species. In this study, we reprogrammed three normal unrelated patient's fibroblasts (p47phox and gp91phox) to pluripotency by lentiviral transduction with defined pluripotency factors. These induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) share the morphological features of human embryonic stem cells, express the key pluripotency factors, and possess high telomerase activity. Furthermore, all the iPSC lines formed embryoid bodies in vitro containing cells originating from all three germ layers and were capable of teratoma formation in vivo. They were isogenic with the original patient fibroblasts, exhibited normal karyotype, and retained the p47phox or gp91phox mutations found in the patient fibroblasts. We further demonstrated that these iPSC could be differentiated into monocytes and macrophages with a similar cytokine profile to blood‐derived macrophages under resting conditions. Most importantly, CGD‐patient‐specific iPSC‐derived macrophages showed normal phagocytic properties but lacked reactive oxygen species production, which correlates with clinical diagnosis of CGD in the patients. Together these results suggest that CGD‐patient‐specific iPSC lines represent an important tool for modeling CGD disease phenotypes, screening candidate drugs, and the development of gene therapy

Lentiviral gene therapy vector with UCOE stably restores function in iPSC-derived neutrophils of a CDG patient.

A recent gamma-retroviral clinical Chronic Granulomatous Disease (CGD) gene therapy (GT) trial achieved proof-of-concept but was accompanied by activation of oncogenes and transgene silencing. The ubiquitous chromatin opening element (UCOE) comprises the sequences of two divergently oriented house-keeping gene promoters and is known to have anti-silencing properties. In a screen we identified two novel UCOE constructs that prevent adjacent promoter methylation in P19 cells. Experiments were continued with the shorter UCOE constructs in induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) derived from a p47phox-deficient CGD patient. The iPSC line was transduced with the lentiviral GT vectors expressing P47 under the constitutively active SFFV promoter with UCOE element (UCOE_SF) and without UCOE element (SF) adjacent to the SFFV promoter. The iPSC were expanded before propagation towards neutrophils. 20 days after transduction the UCOE_SF vector was protected from methylation in iPSC as previously shown in P19 cells, whereas the SF vector was heavily methylated in iPSC. The UCOE_SF vector maintained stable transgene expression in iPSC, macrophages and neutrophils, whereas the SF vector was strongly silenced. The UCOE_SF vector stably restored ROS production in neutrophils, whereas for the SF vector the count of ROS producing cells was marginal. To conclude, we have shown that the prevention of transgene silencing by UCOE is functionally and mechanistically preserved upon terminal neutrophil differentiation